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Dow Fails To Hold 23,000 As Yield Curve Carnage Continues

October 17, 2017 Tyler Durden 0

The Dow is now up 17% YTD – crushing bonds and bullion – NOTE everything changed when China’s central bank decided that it would remove a reserve requirement for financial institutions trading in FX forwards for clients by cutting it to zero from 20% currently..

 

But let’s not spoil the party!

Dow 23,000…

 

1200 points in 27 days…

 

The Dow is now the most overbought in 8 months (and the past three times, the rally has stalled)…

 

We have never seen a divergence between VIX and The Dow this wide for this long…

 

Additionally, as BofA notes, the S&P 500 has only traded 1% or more in either direction 8 times so far in 2017, tied with 1965 (full year) for the third  fewest in history.

The only years with fewer moves in excess of +/-1% were 1964 (3 times) and 1963 (6 times).

For comparison the most +/-1% moves occurred during the height of the Great Depression in 1932 (181 times), and the most in recent history was during the GFC in 2008 (134 times). The above stat is yet another striking depiction of today’s historic low vol environment.

*  *  *

Anyway – moving on from all that malarkey.

Small Caps and Trannies were notably weaker today as The Dow did what it does…

 

VIX was very illiquid again and actually rallied along with stocks today… Dow was ramped back to 23,000 once again into the close but failed to hold it…

 

Small Caps stumbled notably today…(worst day in 6 weeks)

 

This is the widest divergence between stocks and vol since the 2015 China deval collapse…

 

PG&E soared after headlines about arrest in the CA wildfires BUT then dropped when clarified as a different arsonist..

 

NFLX was a big ‘sell the news’ event…

 

Banks had an ugly after a hopeful pre-market earnings from MS and GS…

 

And finally started to rollover as the yield curve collapse continues…

 

Treasuries were mixed today with the long-end rallying but short-end seing yields rise further with yet more dramatic curve flattening…

 

The bond market bloodbathery continues to crush the dreams of the ‘recovery-hypers’…

 

FX markets were volatile today…

 

With a big reversal in the dollar…

 

As the Peso and Loonie dumped early on NAFTA disagreements then surged after NAFTA negotiators claimed “success” in round 4…and talks will extend beyond 2017 deadline

 

Gold and Silver were lower today…

 

WTI and RBOB both gained ahead of tonight’s API data (WTI barely but RBOB solid)

 

Finally – for good measure – ‘Industrial’ Production remains well below 2014 highs… but the ‘Industrial’ Average is soaring to new record highs…

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Morgan Stanley: “Client Cash Is At Its Lowest Level” As Institutions Dump Stocks To Retail

October 17, 2017 Tyler Durden 0

The “cash on the sidelines” myth is officially dead.
Recall that at the end of July, we reported that in its Q2 earnings results, Schwab announced that after years of avoiding equities, clients of the retail brokerage opened the highest number of broke…

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Dow Hits 23,000 – There’s Just One Thing

October 17, 2017 Tyler Durden 0

Just four weeks since The Dow crossed 22,000…but thanks to Goldman, Boeing, Caterpillar, 3M, and JPMorgan (accounting for over 500 Dow points), the mainstream media’s favorite index just topped 23,000 for the first time ever…

 

With the Top 6 names driving 50% of the index’s move…

 

However, it seems options traders ain’t buying it…

If everything’s so awesome… why are investors buying Dow protection with both hands and feet?

As retail piles in, so professoinals are hedging to extremes.

 

Finally – for good measure – ‘Industrial’ Production remains well below 2014 highs… but the ‘Industrial’ Average is soaring…

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The ECB Has Bought €1.9 Trillion In Bonds: Here Is Who Sold And What They Did With The Money

October 17, 2017 Tyler Durden 0

Since the ECB launched its sovereign debt QE, initially known as PSPP, in March 2015 and later expanded to include corporate debt, or CSPP, in June 2016, the world’s biggest hedge fund central bank has created enough money out of thin air to purchase b…

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Iranian Parliament Speaker Says US “Will Regret” Withdrawing From Nuclear Deal

October 17, 2017 Tyler Durden 0

Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani said Monday that the US would face stiff consequences if it withdraws from the JCPA – informally known as the Iran deal.

Speaker of Iran’s parliament Ali Larijani said that Iran “had a developed plan and a certain law,” should the United States withdraw from the agreement on Tehran’s nuclear program, adding that Washington would “regret it,” Sputnik reported.

Larijani made the statement in St. Petersburg where he was taking part in a parliamentary forum.

President Donald Trump elicited cries of protest from the US’s co-signers of the pact, after saying last week that his administration had decided not to certify Iran’s compliance with the deal and would instead leave the final decision up to Congress. The Trump administration has repeatedly insisted that, while Iran is technically complying with the terms of the pact, it is more broadly violating the “spirit” of the agreement by allegedly continuing to fund terrorist groups and developing and testing ballistic missiles.

Trump’s speech, in which he also accused Iran of being a threat to global security, elicited howls of disapproval from the US’s partners in negotiating the deal.

“We encourage the US Administration and Congress to consider the implications to the security of the US and its allies before taking any steps that might undermine the JCPOA, such as re-imposing sanctions on Iran lifted under the agreement,” French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and British Prime Minister Theresa May said in a joint statement.

In Brussels, Federica Mogherini, the EU foreign policy chief, said the Iran deal is an international agreement and “it is not up to any single country to terminate it.”

In a statement after Trump’s speech, Russia’s foreign ministry said there was no place in international diplomacy for “threatening” and “aggressive” rhetoric, adding that such methods were doomed to fail.

“It is a hangover from the past, which does not correspond to modern norms of civilised dealings between countries,” the statement said.

“We viewed with regret the decision of the US President not to confirm to Congress that Iran is fulfilling in good faith” the nuclear deal, it added.

During an appearance on CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson claimed the US is trying to stay in the Iran nuclear deal while hoping to achieve more from it, days after President Donald Trump threatened to pull the US out of the agreement.

The 2015 deal, reached between Iran and the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and the European Union, saw Tehran curtailing its nuclear program in exchange for the easing of crippling economic sanctions.

In an amusing development, Trump has urged lawmakers to adopt a bill co-sponsored by Senator “Little” Bob Corker (who has recently traded barbs with the president after saying he wouldn’t seek another term in the senate) that would impose so-called “triggers” like Iran continuing its provocative missile launches, or advancing its nuclear-enrichment capabilities to the point to where it could build a nuclear bomb in a year’s time. Any of these actions would result in sanctions immediately being reimposed.

The US’s allies – not to mention President Donald Trump’s political enemies – have insisted that Trump’s decision to throw a wrench in the works of the deal could lead to its collapse, which in turn would result in Iran resuming its nuclear program, reviving the possibility of a future military showdown with a nuclear-armed Iran.

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Car-Bomb Kills “One-Woman WikiLeaks” Who Led The Panama Papers Revelations

October 17, 2017 Tyler Durden 0

Meet Daphne Caruana Galizia, the journalist who led the Panama Papers investigation into corruption in Malta.

A blogger whose posts often attracted more readers than the combined circulation of the country’s newspapers, Caruana Galizia was recently described by Politico as a “one-woman WikiLeaks”.

To John Dalli, a former European commissioner whom she helped bring down in a tobacco lobbying scandal, Galizia is “a terrorist.”

 

To opposition MPs, she’s a political force of nature, one who fortunately has her guns aimed at the other side of the aisle.

 

“She single-handedly brought the government to the verge of collapse,” says one MP. “The lady has balls,” says another.

 

Galizia’s mantra was simple: blog relentlessly about the “cronyism that is accepted as something normal here. I can’t bear to see people like that rewarded.”

Her blogs were a thorn in the side of both the establishment and underworld figures that hold sway in Europe’s smallest member state.

Well, sadly, all that is over now, as Galizia was killed today when her car, a Peugeot 108, was destroyed by a powerful explosive device which blew the car into several pieces and threw the debris into a nearby field.

As The Guardian reports, her most recent revelations pointed the finger at Malta’s prime minister, Joseph Muscat, and two of his closest aides, connecting offshore companies linked to the three men with the sale of Maltese passports and payments from the government of Azerbaijan.

No group or individual has come forward to claim responsibility for the attack.

Malta’s president, Marie-Louise Coleiro Preca, called for calm.

“In these moments, when the country is shocked by such a vicious attack, I call on everyone to measure their words, to not pass judgment and to show solidarity,” she said.

 

“Everyone knows Ms Caruana Galizia was a harsh critic of mine,” Muscat at a hastily convened press conference, “both politically and personally, but nobody can justify this barbaric act in any way”.

The Nationalist party leader, Adrian Delia – himself the subject of negative stories by Caruana Galizia – claimed the killing was linked to her reporting.

“A political murder took place today,” Delia said in a statement.

 

“What happened today is not an ordinary killing. It is a consequence of the total collapse of the rule of law which has been going on for the past four years.”

Responding to news of the attack, the German MEP Sven Giegold, a leading figure in the parliament’s Panama Papers inquiry, said he was “shocked and saddened”.

“It is too early to know the cause of the explosion but we expect to see a thorough investigation,” said Giegold.

 

“Such incidents bring to mind Putin’s Russia, not the European Union. There can be absolutely no tolerance for violence against the press and violations of the freedom of expression in the European Union.

It doews make one wonder just what is happening in Europe, as Greece’s former finance minister tweeted…

21st century Europe: Execution in Malta of activist exposing tax cheats. Racism triumphing in Austria. And political arrests in Catalonia.

— Yanis Varoufakis (@yanisvaroufakis) October 16, 2017

Interesintgly, Muscat announced in parliament that FBI officers were on their way to Malta to assist with the investigation, following his request for outside help from the US government.

 

Caruana Galizia was 53 and leaves a husband and three sons.

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Move To Digital Currencies Accelerates As PBoC Successfully Tests Algos For Digital Money

October 17, 2017 Tyler Durden 0

In a story that seems to have gone largely unnoticed by the western press, the China Daily reported that the PBoC has successfully designed a prototype that can regulate its future supply of digital fiat currency.
In a report, “PBoC inches closer to di…

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“We Don’t Know How To Replace The Vast Gold Deposits Of The Past”

October 17, 2017 Tyler Durden 0

Authored by Christoff Gisiger via Finanz und Wirthschaft,
Pierre Lassonde, chairman of Franco-Nevada, expects production in the gold mining sector to decline significantly and foresees a price push for the yellow metal.
Few people have achieved more su…

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VIX Shorts Hit New Record High As S&P Surpasses 2017’s Most Bullish Forecast

October 17, 2017 Tyler Durden 0

At the start of 2017, the most optimistic strategist forecast the S&P 500 at 2,500 by year-end.
S&P Year-End forecasts as of 1/6/17…

 
In the last few weeks, the market has not only surpassed that most-exuberant guess…

As Bloomberg n…

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